Problem Analysis #38

17.52s
4,808 toks
Problem Statement

Let aa be a natural number with a6a \leq 6. Using one die and one coin, perform the following experiment.\begin{center}\fbox{\begin{minipage}{0.9\textwidth}Roll the die once.\quad-- If the outcome is less than or equal to aa, toss the coin 55 times and record the number of heads.\quad-- If the outcome is greater than aa, toss the coin 33 times and record the number of heads.\end{minipage}}\end{center}Repeat this experiment 1920019200 times, and let XX be the number of times the recorded value is 33. Suppose that E(X)=4800\text{E}(X) = 4800. Using the standard normal table on the right, computeP(X4800+30a),\text{P}(X \leq 4800 + 30a),and let this value be kk. Compute 1000 $$\times$$ k. [4 points]\begin{center}\begin{tabular}{|c|c|}\hlinezz & P(0Zz)\text{P}(0 \leq Z \leq z) \\hline0.5 & 0.191 \\hline1.0 & 0.341 \\hline1.5 & 0.433 \\hline2.0 & 0.477 \\hline2.5 & 0.494 \\hline3.0 & 0.499 \\hline\end{tabular}\end{center}\

Ground Truth
977
Execution Trace
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] We need to understand the experiment.

We have:

  • Die: fair 6-sided die, outcomes 1 to 6.
  • Parameter a: natural number, a ≤ 6.
  • Experiment: roll die once.
    • If outcome ≤ a: toss coin 5 times, record number of heads.
    • If outcome > a: toss coin 3 times, record number of heads.

Repeat experiment 19200 times. Let X = number of times recorded value is 3 (i.e., exactly 3 heads). Given E(X) = 4800.

We need to compute P(X ≤ 4800 + 30a) = k, then compute 1000 × k.

We are given a standard normal table with z and P(0 ≤ Z ≤ z). We need to approximate using normal approximation (CLT) since n is large (19200). X is a sum of Bernoulli random variables (but not identical because probability of 3 heads differs depending on die outcome). However, X is the total number of successes (where success = recorded value = 3). We can compute p = probability that in a single experiment, the recorded value is 3.

Then X ~ Binomial(n=19200, p) approximately normal with mean μ = np = 4800, variance σ² = np(1-p). But wait: E(X) = 4800 given. So np = 4800. So p = 4800/19200 = 0.25 exactly. So p = 0.25.

But we must check if p = 0.25 is consistent with a? Because p depends on a. Let's compute p in terms of a.

Let die outcome D uniform on {1,...,6}.

Case 1: D ≤ a: then toss 5 coins, record number of heads H5 ~ Binomial(5, 0.5). Probability that H5 = 3 is C(5,3) * (0.5)^5 = 10/32 = 5/16 = 0.3125.

Case 2: D > a: then toss 3 coins, record H3 ~ Binomial(3, 0.5). Probability that H3 = 3 is (0.5)^3 = 1/8 = 0.125.

So overall p = P(D ≤ a) * (5/16) + P(D > a) * (1/8).

Since die uniform, P(D ≤ a) = a/6, P(D > a) = (6-a)/6.

Thus p = (a/6)(5/16) + ((6-a)/6)(1/8) = (a/6)(5/16) + ((6-a)/6)(2/16) [since 1/8 = 2/16].

Simplify: p = [a*5 + (6-a)2] / (616) = [5a + 12 - 2a] / 96 = (3a + 12) / 96 = (a + 4) / 32.

Given E(X) = np = 19200 * p = 4800, so p = 4800/19200 = 0.25 = 1/4.

Thus (a+4)/32 = 1/4 => a+4 = 32*(1/4) = 8 => a = 4.

So a = 4.

Now we need to compute P(X ≤ 4800 + 30a) = P(X ≤ 4800 + 120) = P(X ≤ 4920).

We have μ = 4800, σ² = np(1-p) = 19200 * 0.25 * 0.75 = 19200 * 0.1875 = 3600. So σ = sqrt(3600) = 60.

We use normal approximation: X ~ N(4800, 60²). Then standardize: Z = (X - μ)/σ.

We want P(X ≤ 4920) = P(Z ≤ (4920 - 4800)/60) = P(Z ≤ 120/60) = P(Z ≤ 2.0).

From the table, P(0 ≤ Z ≤ 2.0) = 0.477. Since normal distribution symmetric, P(Z ≤ 2.0) = 0.5 + 0.477 = 0.977.

Thus k = 0.977.

Then 1000 × k = 977.

But we must check: the table gives P(0 ≤ Z ≤ z). For z=2.0, it's 0.477. So P(Z ≤ 2.0) = 0.5 + 0.477 = 0.977 indeed.

Thus answer = 977.

We should verify with Python to ensure no rounding issues.

We'll compute p, a, then compute probability using normal approximation.

We'll also check if any other interpretation? The problem says "Using the standard normal table on the right, compute P(X ≤ 4800 + 30a)". That's exactly what we did.

Thus final answer: 977.

We'll write Python code to compute a, p, μ, σ, z, and probability.

But we must use the given table values. We'll just compute using those values.

We'll output 1000*k.

Let's do it. </think>

[THOUGHT] We need to compute a from given expected value, then compute the probability using normal approximation with the provided table.

Steps:

  1. Compute p from E(X) = np = 4800, n=19200 → p = 4800/19200 = 0.25.
  2. Express p in terms of a: p = (a+4)/32. Solve (a+4)/32 = 0.25 → a = 4.
  3. Compute μ = 4800, σ = sqrt(np(1-p)) = sqrt(192000.250.75) = sqrt(3600) = 60.
  4. Compute threshold: 4800 + 30a = 4800 + 120 = 4920.
  5. Compute z = (4920 - μ)/σ = 120/60 = 2.0.
  6. From table, P(0 ≤ Z ≤ 2.0) = 0.477.
  7. So P(Z ≤ 2.0) = 0.5 + 0.477 = 0.977.
  8. Then 1000 × k = 977.

We'll verify with Python.

[PYTHON] import math

n = 19200 E_X = 4800 p = E_X / n # 0.25

Solve for a: p = (a+4)/32

a = p * 32 - 4 print("a =", a)

mu = E_X sigma = math.sqrt(n * p * (1 - p)) print("sigma =", sigma)

threshold = mu + 30 * a print("threshold =", threshold)

z = (threshold - mu) / sigma print("z =", z)

Table values: for z=2.0, P(0<=Z<=z) = 0.477

We'll store table as dict

table = { 0.5: 0.191, 1.0: 0.341, 1.5: 0.433, 2.0: 0.477, 2.5: 0.494, 3.0: 0.499 }

Find closest z in table (z is exactly 2.0)

if z in table: p_0_to_z = table[z] else: # Should not happen p_0_to_z = None print("P(0 <= Z <= z) from table =", p_0_to_z)

k = 0.5 + p_0_to_z print("k =", k)

result = 1000 * k print("1000 * k =", result) [/PYTHON]

Tool Output
[PYTHON OUTPUT] a = 4.0 sigma = 60.0 threshold = 4920.0 z = 2.0 P(0 <= Z <= z) from table = 0.477 k = 0.977 1000 * k = 977.0 [/PYTHON OUTPUT]
Reasoning Process

[THOUGHT] The Python output confirms the calculation: a = 4, z = 2.0, k = 0.977, and 1000 × k = 977. So the final answer is 977.

\boxed{977}

Final Model Output
977

Comparative Analysis (P38) (Average across runs)

Avg Time Taken

K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
249.6
Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
69.5
Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
64.7
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
57.4
Deepseek-V3.2
51.2
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking
39.2
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601
37.6
Grok-4.1-fast
32.0
HCX-007(high)
30.4
A.X-4.0 (72B)
28.0
GPT-5.1 (high)
25.8
Solar-Open-100B
23.2
Claude-Opus-4.5
21.1
K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
17.5
GPT-5.2 (high)
16.8
axk1
8.2
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
7.3

Avg Token Usage

K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
38446.0
Solar-Pro-2 (31B)(high)
10399.0
Gemini-3-Pro-Preview
10165.0
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking-2601
9914.5
Kanana-2-30B-Thinking
8437.0
Grok-4.1-fast
6540.0
Solar-Open-100B
6465.0
Claude-Opus-4.5
5947.0
Deepseek-V3.2
5195.0
HCX-007(high)
5075.0
EXAONE-4.0.1-32B (high)
4934.0
K-EXAONE-236B-A23B
4808.0
GPT-5.2 (high)
4057.0
GPT-5.1 (high)
3762.0
axk1
3323.0
Llama-VARCO-8B-Instruct
3117.0
A.X-4.0 (72B)
2613.0